In recent times, the Nigerian media space has been inundated with suggestions for a revolution as the solution to our myriads of challenges. But little did these advocates of revolution recognize that a revolution is a scientific movement that is grounded on certain factors and principles, without which no revolution can take place, talk less of its success. Everything considered, i am seriously in doubt of the possibility of a revolution happening in Nigeria. In fact, I always laugh whenever anybody talks about the possibility of an eruption of a revolution in this country, in the same way as I laugh at these Biafra secessionist protagonists. For even the overwhelming majority of our Igbo compatriots know that Igbos can never secede from Nigeria. A cursory look at demographic composition of Lagos and all the cities of Nigeria and even the nation's villages, will bear eloquent testimony to the fact that the Ndigbos are the most widely distributed in all the nooks and cranies of this nation. And wherever they reside, Igbos make a home thereof, mixing well with their host communities. So, where are they seceding to? I wonder !
Now, talking about revolution in Nigeria, the fact must be acknowledged that Nigeria is a country where virtually all known human evolutionary trends tend to defy all the logics that are certified by renowned socio-historiographers. I think general Badamasi Babangida was very right when he was reported as saying that Nigeria's problems defy all logics. This assertion is true from all indications.
David Cameron, a former British PM it was, who was reported as saying that if even a fraction of the magnitude of the treasury loots and booties of economic plunder that have been wrecked on Nigeria in the last two decades, had been visited on his country, the UK would have since collapsed and be consigned to the scrap heap of history. But because Nigeria is home to a special breed of human species, the nation has remained standing in spite of the relentless pillage on it by its successive managers and its continuous hemorrhage on all fronts.
PM Holt, a celebrated historian and a distinguished man of letters, it was, who gave what can be taken as a foolproof proposition on the making of a successful revolution that is capable of turning a decaying nation around, stave it off the precipice, and set it on a new course of steady progress. According to the erudite scholar, there are four conditions that must be cumulatively prevalent in a polity before it attains what is known to history as a revolutionary situation. These conditions are as follow...
1. The presence in the polity, of pains, agony, and discomfort, all resulting in a general bitterness and discontent, that is not limited to a particular section of the polity to the exclusion of others, but well spread across the nooks and cranies of the nation.
2. The identification and tracing of the cause of the foregoing painful situation to a known source, which is the source of authority and command of the nation's affairs, otherwise called the government. Which authority is inherently weak and ineffectual, such that it lacks the capacity to nip the movement in the bud, by reason of its ability and capacity to swiftly act to crush the revolutionary insurrection from the onset.
3. The availability of a revolutionary high command. This is the leadership unit of the movement, responsible for charting the course of the revolution and formulation of policies meant to be adopted by the new order after the displacement of the weak, decaying, and ineffectual one. And
4. The presence of a revolutionary army of persons. These are the foot soldiers. They are to carry out and put effect to the directives of the revolutionary high command, out there on the field.
If the foregoing conditions are used to assess and mirror the situation of Nigeria since the inception of democracy in 1999, one would see that Nigeria is now largely in a revolutionary situation. This is because virtually all the above four conditions are now prevalent in the country, safe the fact that the government, whose hostile policies are the sources of the people's agony and pains, is not weak at all. It is so strong and formidable that any contemplation of staging a revolutionary movement in this country by anybody, is suicidal. And as Fela rightly sang....
*we no wan die. We no wan quench. Mama dey for house. Papa dey for house. I get children. I get husband.....*
Besides that, revolution cannot occur in Nigeria, let alone talking about its success. The reason is that the political configuration of Nigeria is such that even though the pains and discomfort in the country are general, Nigeria is so endemically ethnicised or extremely tribalised that whichever tribe that produces the head of government, will always enjoy the support and goodwill of his tribesmen, even in spite of their suffering. For this reason, a revolutionary movement in Nigeria will lack the massive unanimity and spontaneity necessary to rattle and overwhelm the governing authorities. Another factor in this respect is religion. This, too, will act to discourage people from staging an all-encompassing revolution in Nigeria.
Sule Lamido, a former governor of Jigawa state, has recently given another very cogent reason why a revolution can never happen in Nigeria. According to him, Nigerians are too poor and lacking in the provisions necessary to strengthen them against their tormenting government. I think he was right. Poverty has been used as a veritable instrument to cow the masses into submission. This deliberate weaponisation of poverty by the governing authorities is so potent that the masses are now very tenuous, prostrate, and helpless. When this is combined with the reality of the amount of forces available to the government as masters in the art of crushing violent insurrection, revolution in Nigeria will lack the revolutionary army of persons necessary for its success on the field.
It is for the foregoing reasons that I always laugh whenever people talk of the possibility of a revolution occurring in Nigeria. Unless something is done about our configuration, the warped peculiarities of this nation are such that hardly can anything work here. I doubt much!!!
By Mr. Dauda Adesina Joki-Lasisi is a retired Assistant Commissioner of Police who hails from Ondo state, was born on 9th August, 1965. He attended the prestigious University of Lagos, where he bagged a Master and Bachelors Degrees in Law. He then attended Nigerian Law School for his bar program, and he was subsequently called to the Nigerian bar. Before reading Law in UNILAG, he had earlier attended Ondo State University, Ado Ekiti (as it then was), where he bagged a Bachelors degree in History and International studies. He joined the Nigeria Police Force and was trained at the Nigeria Police Academy, Kano, as a cadet Inspector, EFCC Academy Abuja, Chinese National Police Academy Guangzhou, China, and the Nation's Premier Police College, Ikeja Lagos.
In the course of his service as a police officer, he attended Tactical Leadership Course at the Police Staff College, Jos. He served in various formations and duty posts in Nigeria Police and EFCC. His foreign services include serving in the United Nations Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) 2000-2002 and also the United Nations Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH) 2004-2006. He ran through the ranks in the Police and retired as an Assistant Commissioner Of Police in 2021, upon his attainment of the statutory 35 years in public service. His last duty post was as Area Commander, Kabba in Kogi State Command. He is now into full law practice as a solicitor and advocate of the Supreme Court of Nigeria. His hobbies include reading, writing, and gardening. He is happily married with children.
